Jeff Rubin and the return of triple digit oil

Jeff Rubin's latest on Globeinvestor has a few important points.

• Oil demand in North America has peaked
• Oil demand in China will pickup to make up for the North American drop in demand
• The globalisation of markets is unustainable
• Markets will become regionalised in the future

So, how do you make money from this? Looking at the first two points, I wonder if we'll see the energy stocks soar like they did in 2008. He's talking about transfer of oil demand, so if the drop-off in US oil demand is just going to be picked up by China, then I would think that the spectacular gains in energy stocks in 2008 may be tempered during the next episode of triple digit oil. But, panic and greed always seem to rule the day, so those of us who are patient and buy low now might just be smiling when triple digit oil prices do return.

Way back in the mid 80's, I stated in my grade 12 reflection that my main concern was the Trudeau government's deficit spending (continued by the Mulroney Conservatives). I recall seeing (then finance minister) Jean Chrétien on the National saying deficit spending was "not a bad thing" in the early 80's and I thought "who is this idiot?" to say something so irresponsible on national tv. We had just come off record high interest rates (Canada Savings Bonds yielded 19.5% in 1980). So, looking at the mess in Europe, I know it doesn't take a genius (even a grade 12 student could figure that out) to see that the deficit spending to 'stimulate' the economy was just a temporary mirage (as David Rosenberg's being arguing). I've been more in his camp as I thought the 'recovery' has been way to quick. I've also railed about the fact that the tax breaks (miniscule for me) that were handed out for stimulus are being clawed back and more with the big hikes in EI premiums they're tacking on now.

However, I've still been in the markets. It's a dangerous time to be playing though. Sticking to PFE, BMO (this one is giving me a 6.5% dividend yield) for safety in big cap. Have some STB for the 10%+ dividend yield. Made a bad move on ATH, but with triple digit oil, I think it will make me some money. Right now, looking at MFC (new 52 week low) or more STB (for dividend). Possibly SU because it's a big cap and it's near a 52 week low.

With regionalised markets, wouldn't that require some regulatory moves as well? With computer trading, you can trade on any market you want. Maybe I'm not understanding what he means by that.

How do you make money? Save and live simply like Grace Groner, the unassuming centenarian who donated $7 million to Lake Forest College upon her death this past January.

Jerry outgrew U of T

While reading on GlobeInvestor yesterday, I found a link to an article about Jerry Mitrovica. I first met Jerry when he was a PhD student (in geophysics) teaching a 3rd year solid and fluid mechanics course in the geology department. It was one of the last times that classes were being taught in the old Mining Building at U of T. He became a great mentor to me as an undergrad (Geology and Physics) and when I was having a bad time in graduate school at U of S. It was in that class that he emphasised a rather simple, but powerful idea - dimensional analysis. Rather than memorising equations, you look at the units of the physical quantities to get more insight into the problem. So in the classic slope problems in grade 10 and grade 12 physics, if the Y-axis is measured in metres and the X-axis is measured in seconds, the slope = rise/run has units of metres/second which is a speed (or velocity). I remember one conversation we had where he told me his professional soccer career had to end because the league (CPSL?) folded and that he went into Engineering Science on a dare from his brother David who didn't think he could cut that tough program. I remember how with great enthusiasm, he asked me "Leslie, did you take Asymptotic Methods?" and I was thinking "Jerry, I barely passed APM346 PDE, how would you ever think I would take Asymptotic Methods?" It was telling that he also said to me "I'm under no illusions that anyone on Yonge St would really care what I'm doing. Nobody owes me anything". There are some other gems of wisdom he related to me, but I will always be grateful that such a brilliant mind had time for someone who was so obviously of lesser ability. After clicking on the links at the Globe article, I found out that Jerry has since gone to Harvard. His U of T page is still there. I noticed he's a status-only professor at U of T (whatever that means).

So, of all the famous geophysicists I encountered at U of T: J Tuzo Wilson, G F West, C H Chapman - it was the young grad student that had the most impact on my life. Thanks Jerry and belated congratulations.

Played the Mason and Hamlin again

I haven't touched our Mason and Hamlin Model A for months. With the cover off, the aromatic hard rock maple fills the room with its pleasant scent. I've been mad at the stupid dealer we bought it from-The Music Group. They were otherwise know as PianoHouse Burlington when they came to Saskatoon in May 2008 and October 2008, but the owner, Willem van Suijdam, had to sell that part of his operations in 2009. I found a fault in the lid at the hinge joint in February 2009. The problem was never resolved by Mr van Suijdam, so I contacted Mason and Hamlin directly in January 2010. They shipped me a new lid in April 2010, but I had to pay the customs brokerage as well the technician, Bruce Gibson, who will be installing it for me tomorrow. Needless to say, it's been a great inconvenience as I had to uncrate the lid today and haul it into the house with my wife. Mason and Hamlin do make quality pianos in Boston (only 300 per year), but The Music Group (aka Mason and Hamlin House) are horrible dealers. DO NOT BUY A PIANO FROM THE MUSIC GROUP! Interestingly enough, the only other Saskatoon person to buy a new Mason and Hamlin piano is another teacher, BJM teacher and musician Don Griffith. He bought a 9'4" Model CC94 from the dealer in Calgary.

So, I finally played the piano again. I tried Brahms Op 118, Nr 2. When I first tried to play it a few years ago, I was really rusty reading music and I thought it was impossible. I've managed to negotiate the first two pages so it sounds sort of like what it should be. I was first drawn to this piece during a commentary about it on either CBC Stereo or CJRT one Sunday afternoon when I lived in Oakville back in my undergrad days. Being no expert on music theory, it really struck me when the commentator pointed out that Brahms turns the tune inside out (about 1:47 into this version) and how exceedingly beautiful that 'simple' change is - indeed. I first downloaded the sheet music from SheetMusic Fox, but there is an even better source - IMSLP.

Next, I tried the Chopin Waltz Op 69, Nr 1. It was a piece I remembered way back from high school and was one of the first pieces of music I searched for when we bought our used Bell upright piano in November 2007. Next, I tried Op 69, Nr 2. Quite rusty, but hopefully, I can practise some more when there is more time. I think I'm going to buy the Cambridge Handbook of Expertise - it espouses the view that practice does make perfect. Now, I will never be Clara Haskil, but hopefully, I will be a better pianist. I have a Clara Haskil recording of Mozart's Twinkle Twinkle variations and Samuel was so drawn to it he asked about who played it. I said she died a long time ago (1960), but she was such an incandescent talent. I got the 7 CD Philips set from Amazon last year. I already had some of the CDs in that set, but I finally added the Mozart KV 466/491 and Beethoven Op 37 to my collection. Elisha really liked the CD of Schubert's D960. It was Clara Haskil's playing that drew me to Chopin's 2nd Concerto. Before I heard her recording, I did not like it very much.

Our little Elisha really loves classical music. When he first saw the Bernstein/Zimerman DVDs of the Beethoven piano concerti, he started conducting. He really likes Op 58 the most. Now, he's into pretending to play the flute, cello, violin and drums. He'll be attending the Suzuki summer string programmer in July. I recently got von Karajan's Beethoven symphony set on DVD and his favorite there is the 9th ("I want music singing"). Amazingly, I got this DVD set (on Amazon.ca Marketplace) for about half the price I paid for the 1977 LP set I bought when I was in junior high school. Sometimes, there is progress?

What's wrong with Integrade Pro 9.01 E-mailing?

I think I might have found out what one of the bugs with IPro 9.01 and e-mailing is. I think this program can't handle more than 1 gig of RAM. When I sent out from the teacher computer in EHCI Lab 218, it worked fine with Exchange server setting. When I sent out with the Coolmax P4 2.8 (1 Gig RAM) at home with the Shaw SMTP server, it was OK. When I tried to send out with the basement Athlon X2 5000+ at home with the Shaw SMTP server, I got a memory error. I also get memory errors on the ABCI teacher station in Rm 3 (But that one has only 1 gig RAM). The teacher station in EHCI Lab 201 has 2 gig ram, and I got a memory error when trying to send out from Exchange server today!

So, I tried sending out with Windows 2000 on the old Via Samuel2 computer with 512 M RAM. Period 2 sent out with no problems, but Period 3 had a problem - I had to not send to the very first student, and send to the rest and the Shaw SMTP server worked no problems.

I tried the Coolmax P4 2.8 GHz and got the same problem with the Period 3 class sending out e-mail as I did with the Via Samuel2 computer. ???

So, I think I have a pretty good case that 2 Gig ram is causing e-mail send errors in IgPro 9.01.

Rev. Ament's Message Today & Two Maclean's Articles

A lot to think about after Rev. Gwen Ament's message today. Churches can't keep on doing what they've been doing. This sounds a lot like what the AFL (Assessment for Learning) message is - schools can't keep on doing what they've been doing. Even more amplified is the notion that schools are not changing fast enough to keep pace with Web 2.0 developments (Will Richardson for example). We've always enjoyed and got something from every one of Rev. Ament's sermons and it is sad that next week will be her last Sunday at St Andrew's. She mentioned that Presbyterians are really good at the great thanksgiving but not the great commission. How true.

My son asked me a few times why people don't go to church. In our cul-de-sac, we are the only family that attends church regularly. I said to him that when people have a lot of stuff, they tend to not feel they need God. I recently came across this Maclean's article which stated that people who attend religious services give, on average, more than three times more than non-believers. It's really interesting to read the online discussion to get a sense of what Paul means when he wrote Romans 8:7: ⁷Because the carnal mind is enmity against God: for it is not subject to the law of God, neither indeed can be. There is much hostility against organised religion these days. Coming to Christianity as an outsider, I tended not to take 'apparent truths' for granted. As I read the Bible as a non-Christian, but a believer, I was struck by the many truths it did hold and how many have twisted its meaning out of context. I posted a simple comment at the Maclean's article noting how $1038 is really not much given the Christian teaching of tithing at least 10% of one's earnings.

I've also observed some things at school noted in this other Maclean's article. I've encountered some grade 9 boys who've totally tuned out of school. Despite the AFL modifications of choice and possibilities to redo and improve work, I've not been able to get them to respond to learn in my class. Girls are usually more marks oriented, but not necessarily learning oriented as evidenced by some of the questions some of them ask me (about marks). It's not that AFL has toally failed for me, but there is still a long way to go. So, AFL is not going to work without a serious cultural shift. The same, it seems applies to church. How can church compete with soccer and other 'distractions' when there is no hunger or thirst for what really matters? I bought the book Christianity for the Rest of Us last fall, but didn't attend the church book club meetings. It is a detailed account of successful mainline churches.

I still can't forget my friends at Calvin-Goforth Presbyterian Church though. Our eldest attended their wonderful singing camp on 2010 April 8th. He came back full of fire for (Calvin-Goforth) church. I had taken him to Calvin-Goforth on Palm Sunday and he didn't want to go (he wanted to go to St Andrew's church). We were at Calvin-Goforth again for Good Friday and then Dayspring Presbyterian Church in Edmonton for Easter Sunday. We went to Calvin-Goforth's Joyfully Singing programme on April 8th. After that, he wanted to 'defect' to Calvin-Goforth. Although there were only a few children that afternoon (and they were all 'the converted' as Gwen would say), our son's enthusiasm for church was rekindled. He felt involved and was thinking that he would be singing in front of the church (he once did that at Parkview Presbyterian Church - now closed). He had attended their Activity Camp back in 2003 as well.

Esata hard drive and Windows 7 - not ready for prime time yet

Well, I finally figured out how to get a Fantom Esata hard drive to be recognised in Windows 7 Pro 64 bit. You have to right click drives from device manager and scan for hardware changes (see above).


This is hardly acceptable from a user standpoint. I had to google this. Then, I wanted to know if it's possible to unmount the drive (sort of like stopping a USB device). Some esata drives are hot-swappable, but some are not. It depends on the esata controller. Now, I'm using an esata port on my Gigabyte mainboard, so I have no idea if it is hotswappable. According to this post on a MS site, it's best to shut down the computer before turning off the drive!

Are technical skills devalued in Web 2.0?

It seems to me that with the export of even technical jobs like programming being shipped to India, is it really that important to have the technical skills that were once valued? It seems to me that with millions of untapped brains in the developing world, why would companies bother trying to hire from a dwindling talent pool in the developed world? However, for a superpower like the USA, this is not a good trend as do they really want to have their defence industries staffed by foreigners (the latest terrorist problem in Times Square underscores that). How important is it to know HTML and CSS, let alone Ruby, PHP, Java, C# etc? These are not easy skills to learn. The personal homepage is giving way to the personal blog. Web 2.0 makes creating a blog or wiki site possible without having technical skills. It seems to me that although such new and cool tools like blogs, wikis, and Prezi require considerable technical know-how to bring to market, the users of these tools are the ones driving the technology. Of course, this is nothing new as the same goes for hardware as well (eg the iPad and iPhone).

Now yesterday, I had a rather bad support incidence with tech support. A rather sullen and stoic tech does not give a good face to the technical side of things. Yesterday's episode was worse than usual, so sometimes the tech side just doesn't know how to present a user-friendly face to the users. I can see it from the other side as well because I know it is sometimes taken for granted that things should always work (and that's not necessarily an easy thing to do with limited resources).

Where does that leave the IP teacher (do we teach HTML/CSS?) and CS teacher (how valuable is programming). I know that knowing how to program does save me time as sometimes I can code a custom tool for myself or someone else. But these are 'hard left brain concepts' to learn and therefore, not too popular. It's going to be a tough sell in computer science (as the dwindling enrollment shows).

Also found this from a quick Delicious search today. It's about using Twitter for learning. Might be a good blog to follow

More bad news from Taiwan

Ocean Voice radio station is silenced. The KMT's version of justice is just garbage. Why do people put up with it? Former President Chen is in jail, yet KMT murderers walk free. I wonder if there is an Amnesty International writing campaign to set him free? Then, there's all the waste. Jerome Keating's post shows how the ROC was really never an established country in 1911 (the stupid year of the Republic that is stilled used in Taiwan). In fact, it never was in effective control of the entire mainland China, ever.

OE-CAKE Physics Simulator

This is one cool application (Mac/PC versions available). OE-Cake Physics Simulator. Wendy sent me an e-mail about it just this morning. Tried it out at home and it's all that easy to use.

Twitter updates don't show in Lab 218, whois.net is better

Strange, the Twitter updates in the corner don't show up in Lab 218 Teacher Station, but it works in the one in the 201/218 office.

Also, whois.net works better than who.is to find what organisation or person is behind a domain.

Tried Delicious and Evernote

Evernote gives you 40 megabytes/month of storage. You can use this as a save now, read later tool. It saves webpage information you select (with your mouse) into a notebook. I installed the Firefox extension as well as the Windows app. For some reason, my notebook does not show the two StarPhoenix articles I saved, but the Windows app does. Don't know what the problem is (are the web and windows versions not in synch?). (Update - it's synched now, I guess it just takes some time). In the past (and I will still do this), I went to the print article link and then made a PDF which I would save somewhere (often on my Gmail account as an e-mail to myself).

I also signed up for delicious (already had a Yahoo account, so this was easy) and bookedmarked the SP article on SaskPower this past weekend (excellent for Science 9). I then shared it off in Twitter as well as delicious (which then shares it off in Twitter). I wonder how long the link will last though? That's why it's good to archive articles that are of use in a PDF. I wonder how long Evernote will be around? The problem with some of these new Web 2.0 tools is that they often change or disapper (eg Etherpad which was bought by Google).

Don't forget the importance of putting good tag words so that anything you share publicly will be easy to search for. I often do this when I store things by e-mailing them to myself (so I can search for it easily in Gmail in the future).

Today's Spark - a perfect fit to IT Summit 2010

Spark's show today (CBC Radio) was a perfect fit to the IT Summit 2010 conference I've just attended. SmartPhones in the classroom was particularly good. Check it out.

In a nutshell, we really need to teach WHY you would use tech to enhance learning. We are really doing a poor job of it (but that's not YOUR fault). It really requires a mind shift. I embraced Web 1.0 (read only web) by publishing Formosa Betrayed on the web, but I've largely neglected the power of Web 2.0 (read/write web). I've used it with Scholaris (virtual classrooms) and Wikispaces, but I've really not taken advantage of the social aspects of this technology.

I've started this blog and I'll be using Twitter more because I've had no luck getting people to respond to my posts in my AFL Portal, Teaching With the Physics Suite SPS Book Club, and Probeware Portal. I'm trying to hyperlink those portals right now, but SPSLearn isn't responding (that's another reason I've decided to go outside the firewall). Links now in (remember, have to have SPS account to access Scholaris links). So, I'll try to find my community from around the world (that's something anyone can do now with Twitter and blogs).

This reminds me of when I was in graduate school and I got the most help from Colin Zelt (then, a post-doc at GSC in Ottawa). I met him at the CGU conference in Banff and told him about my situation. Colin told me he would post his wide-angle seismic plotting program on the GSC ftp site for me to pickup and modify (that was back in 1992). I had a small network of other geophysicists helping me at that time (Jerry Mitrovica at U of Toronto, Mike Burianyk at U of Alberta, Julian Cabrera UBC and Chuck Ammon at UCSC).

Our long time neighbour passed away on May 2nd

Just got an a-mail from my dad that Ed Stone, our long time neighbour in Oakville passed away on May 2nd. He was a great neighbour (everything a neighbour should be). Here's the online memory book.