Jeff Rubin and the return of triple digit oil

Jeff Rubin's latest on Globeinvestor has a few important points.

• Oil demand in North America has peaked
• Oil demand in China will pickup to make up for the North American drop in demand
• The globalisation of markets is unustainable
• Markets will become regionalised in the future

So, how do you make money from this? Looking at the first two points, I wonder if we'll see the energy stocks soar like they did in 2008. He's talking about transfer of oil demand, so if the drop-off in US oil demand is just going to be picked up by China, then I would think that the spectacular gains in energy stocks in 2008 may be tempered during the next episode of triple digit oil. But, panic and greed always seem to rule the day, so those of us who are patient and buy low now might just be smiling when triple digit oil prices do return.

Way back in the mid 80's, I stated in my grade 12 reflection that my main concern was the Trudeau government's deficit spending (continued by the Mulroney Conservatives). I recall seeing (then finance minister) Jean Chrétien on the National saying deficit spending was "not a bad thing" in the early 80's and I thought "who is this idiot?" to say something so irresponsible on national tv. We had just come off record high interest rates (Canada Savings Bonds yielded 19.5% in 1980). So, looking at the mess in Europe, I know it doesn't take a genius (even a grade 12 student could figure that out) to see that the deficit spending to 'stimulate' the economy was just a temporary mirage (as David Rosenberg's being arguing). I've been more in his camp as I thought the 'recovery' has been way to quick. I've also railed about the fact that the tax breaks (miniscule for me) that were handed out for stimulus are being clawed back and more with the big hikes in EI premiums they're tacking on now.

However, I've still been in the markets. It's a dangerous time to be playing though. Sticking to PFE, BMO (this one is giving me a 6.5% dividend yield) for safety in big cap. Have some STB for the 10%+ dividend yield. Made a bad move on ATH, but with triple digit oil, I think it will make me some money. Right now, looking at MFC (new 52 week low) or more STB (for dividend). Possibly SU because it's a big cap and it's near a 52 week low.

With regionalised markets, wouldn't that require some regulatory moves as well? With computer trading, you can trade on any market you want. Maybe I'm not understanding what he means by that.

How do you make money? Save and live simply like Grace Groner, the unassuming centenarian who donated $7 million to Lake Forest College upon her death this past January.