Thursday, June 3, 2010

Numbers, numbers, numbers!

This nice video from Globe and Mail talks about the dividend payout ratio. Now, I've been getting a 10%+ yield on STB for the last month or so. Too good to be true and unsustainable? Well, that's what I was suspecting, but my great aunt said it was a recommendation by a fellow on the radio in Edmonton too. I also looked into STB's balance sheet and found that if they didn't payout such a high dividend yield, they would have been in the black instead of losing $0.10/share (dividends per share was $0.14).

Well, the video notes that calculating

dividend payout ratio = (dividends per share/EPS)

and looking at the history of dividend increases, you can see that MBT (DPR=166%, no increases since 2004) is unsustainable whereas BCE (DPR=66%, 3 increases over the last 1.5 years) is sustainable. BMO DPR=64% and RY DPR=53%. Both are relatively healthy payout ratios.

What to do now? STB just raised $50 million with debt issue. Is this another bad sign? Should I move from STB to RY (which has plummeted recently) or MFC for possible capital gain? MFC is closer to a 52 week low, so I'm leaning more towards this one. I still like STB though - is it safe enough? Also have SU on the radar.

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